Inaccurate growth projections will lead to insufficient infrastructure: TBM councillor

Grey County recently updated its growth management strategy with projections on population and employment up to 2046. 

However, councillors from the Town of The Blue Mountains (TBM) say the numbers don’t reflect reality. 

“It's lacking in a real understanding of where the growth is,” said TBM councillor Rob Sampson. “I worry that these projections here are going to be on the skinny side when we look back at this in four years.”

The growth management strategy update was prepared for the county by Hemson Consulting Ltd., and built on the last forecast that was published in 2018. 

Data for the 25-year growth projections was compiled with cooperation from the county’s nine lower-tier municipalities, who provided information on building permits, municipal planning applications, servicing, background studies, planned infrastructure upgrades, and any trends being observed locally.

COVID-19 impacts were also taken into account. However, the consulting company also noted that “increased growth and development interest in Grey County began before COVID and does not appear to be a pandemic-related phenomenon”.

The growth management strategy, which was presented to the county council on July 22, states that the region is in the midst of a “population surge.”

The update outlines that permanent households in Grey County have seen an increase of 2,290 from 2018 to 2020, with TBM, Hanover, Southgate and Owen Sound accounting for 70 per cent of the total household growth.

According to the report, from 2016 to 2020, TBM added nearly 1,400 permanent residents and the town is poised to grow significantly in the next 25 years in both population and employment.

TBM's neighbouring municipality of Grey Highlands also saw growth from 2016 to 2020 with the addition of 450 permanent residents. The report added that Grey Highlands is experiencing the effects of increased migration from the GTA and a review of the municipality’s housing allocation is warranted. 

According to the strategy, Grey County’s overall permanent population is expected to increase by approximately 23,810 people between 2021 and 2046. Employment is expected to grow by 8,680 jobs.

“The new forecasts exceed the previous 2018 forecasts for the population and are anticipated to grow from 103,000 people today, to 127,000 by 2046,“ said Stefan Krzeczunowicz, associate partner with Hemson Consulting. 

“Certainly the Blue Mountains, especially in the early years, will be the focus for much of the housing growth. More than 50 per cent of all the units that are in the county development pipelines have been approved or pending approval for development are located in TBM,” Krzeczunowicz continued.  

In a breakdown by municipality, the permanent household forecast for TBM indicates a growth from 4,400 households in 2021 to 7,990 in 2046. 

This represents a 29.8 per cent share of total permanent households in Grey County, which compares to 16.9 per cent in Southgate, 14.1 per cent in Hanover and 9.4 per cent in Owen Sound.

However, TBM councillors said by only counting the permanent households, the numbers do not accurately reflect the services the municipality and county are providing. 

“It says the population for the Blue Mountains will be about 16,000 by 2046,” said TBM’s deputy mayor Rob Potter. “We would argue that we've already surpassed that. We have over 8,000 households and we don't all live alone. When everybody's here and when we look at the services that we're providing, we're already surpassing that 16,000 population.” 

Potter said he would estimate that by 2046, the total population of TBM will likely be in the 32,000 range. 

“That’s in terms of the population we're serving. Because the part-time residents still need garbage service, they still need roads, they still need all the services of full-time residents,” Potter added. 

Krzeczunowicz said the projections in the strategy only take into account permanent residents, and that seasonal or part-time residents have been counted as a separate line item.  

“To get that full picture, you need to really add the permanent plus the seasonal to show the total growth picture. Even there, I think from a housing perspective, it doesn't necessarily capture sort of all the daytrippers that we know are coming to Grey County,” said Scott Taylor, manager of planning services for Grey County. 

“But hopefully, some of that can be picked up through the changes we see in employment growth. But that is certainly something we as staff can look at going forward,” he continued. 

Sampson added that by including population totals in the growth strategy that do not include all service users, it could impact infrastructure development and eventually lead to service delivery issues. 

“Projecting the wrong numbers will lead to getting all those infrastructure support systems wrong. And I suspect that's part of the dilemma we are all facing around things like water, wastewater, etc.,” Sampson said while pointing to Collingwood’s recent water capacity dilemma. 

“In past discussions with Hemson, they've always cautioned us about not being too optimistic, because if we count on collecting money based on those building permits and then the money doesn't come in, we don't have the money to pay for those services,” said Taylor. 

However, Sampson argued he would rather see the county overestimate growth projections because at least then the infrastructure would be in the ground. 

“The risk on the other side [underestimating growth] in my view is disastrous. You then have infrastructure significantly trailing growth and you don't have the cash to pay for it,” he said. 

“Three million people come to this area every year to enjoy it for a week or a day. They all turn the water on and flush their toilets - that's demand on infrastructure and we had better start to invest in it now, not when it's too late,” Sampson continued. 

Taylor added that county staff will plan to have “further discussions with municipal staff and explore policy” related to the growth strategy.  

At the July 22 county meeting, county council members voted 55 to 13 in favour of receiving the strategy and updating growth projections in the county’s official plan with the numbers presented. 

“Councillor Samson and I voted to oppose it but we were the only ones, so it will go forward,” said Potter at a TBM council meeting held on Tuesday. “We will keep working on making people realize that what's happening here is far beyond what they're showing in the numbers in this strategy report.”

The Grey County Growth Management Strategy will be shared with local school and health boards for planning purposes and will also be used to inform numerous other county projects and studies. 

County staff added that the document will be monitored and updated with the next review slated to take place in 2023 once the full data set of the 2021 census has been released.