The province’s health officials are making a case that two more weeks of the stay-at-home order will pay off with lower cases and more capacity to deal with potential new variants.
In the meantime, the co-chair of the COVID-19 science advisory table is seeking to clarify what is safe outdoor activity and what is not.
The co-chair, Dr. Adalsteinn Brown delivered updated COVID case projections for Ontario today (May 20) showing a decline to 500 cases per day if the province keeps the stay-at-home order in place until mid-June.
If the province reopens on June 2, when the current stay-at-home order ends, the modelling data shows there will still be about 1,000 cases per day by mid-June and case counts will decrease from there.
Both projections rely on the province administering 130,000 doses of vaccinations against COVID-19 per day.
If the province reopens schools by June 2, Brown said the case counts will likely end up somewhere in between 500 and 1,000 cases per day.
Beyond the number of cases per day, Brown said there’s a ‘wildcard that can’t be accounted for in modelling: the potential for a vaccine-resistant variant of concern entering and spreading in the province.
He said it’s important to get case counts low in order to enable the province to have the capacity to deal with potential new variants.
“These are challenging choices,” said Brown. “No one wants a fourth wave. We as a community will need to be careful and cautious to avoid a fourth wave.”
The doctor said the outlook is “cautiously optimistic” provided people continue to get vaccinated, and “take it outdoors.”
“Outdoor activities can be safer, and should be encouraged,” said Brown.
In an effort to address what he said is a record high level of “pandemic fatigue,” he included examples of safe outdoor activities such as:
- Local camping with your own household
- Basketball with masks
- Single tennis
- Doubles tennis with masks
- Singing outside where there is social distancing
However, he warned against “mixing” even outdoors with people from outside your household and said people should not be travelling outside of their region even for outdoor activities.
He also said indoor facilities associated with outdoor activities (ie. clubhouses, changerooms) present a greater risk and should remain closed.
Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, echoed Dr. Brown’s “cautious optimism” and encouraged people to keep following public health measures and getting vaccinated.
“We’re winning, Ontarians. We are bringing this down,” said Williams. “You’re doing it in two ways, sticking with the public health measures … and also getting vaccines.”
The doctor noted there have been 5,604 new COVID cases confirmed in Ontario since Monday, with an average of about 2,131 cases per day over the last seven days. That’s a decrease from 2,700 per day last week and over 3,000 per day two weeks ago.
However, Brown and Williams noted the number of people hospitalized with COVID has only just dropped below the peak hospitalization number recorded during the second wave.
“Do not take this lightly, no matter what age you’re at,” said Williams.
The provincial government is expected to announce a reopening plan later this afternoon. Premier Doug Ford is scheduled to host a press conference at 3 p.m. today (May 20).
