There are 29 lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Simcoe Muskoka, but the region's top health official belives there could be thousands of cases untested and unconfirmed.
Dr. Charles Gardner, the medical officer of health for the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit (SMDHU), said community transmission of the deadly virus is a reality and said it's possible thousands of people could have the virus.
At a media briefing Thursday, Gardner announced another COVID-19 death. A woman in her 70s, with a pre-existing medical condition, died yesterday at Orillia Soldiers’ Memorial Hospital. The deadly case was deemed community-acquired.
Once again today, Gardner urged everyone to be diligent in physical distancing.
“It is important people know there is community transmission happening in their community whether or not their community is on the list,” said Gardner, referring to SMDHU's list of confirmed cases in the region.
SMDHU is now reporting 29 lab-confirmed cases in the region, with confirmed cases in Collingwood (1), Barrie (6), Orillia (4), Springwater (1), Clearview (2), New Tecumseth (2), Adjala-Tosorontio (1), Bradford West Gwillimbury (5), Essa (1), and Huntsville (1). The remaining five cases have not yet been posted with information.
There have now been three deaths in the region attributed to COVID-19, and there are at least five hospitalized, though the health unit has not reported details on all 29 cases yet.
“This is going up before it comes down,” said Gardner. “Physical distancing will be the key factor in keeping this under control.”
During today’s update, Gardner expressed concern again at the likelihood of a surge in cases in the region, and said it would overload local health-care facilities.
He said of those hospitalized, most are young (between 20 and 50) and not all of them have pre-existing medical conditions.
Gardner’s advice to residents in Simcoe, Muskoka, and beyond is to behave as though everyone is infected already and could potentially spread the virus to you.
Even with everyone complying, though, Gardner said there are more cases coming and it’s going to take longer than 14 days to flatten that curve.
Physical distancing practices and other control measures put in place – such as the closure of public spaces and non-essential businesses – may need to be in place for upwards of three months, said Gardner.
“The situation in China might be instructive,” said Gardner, noting they have been in tighter lockdown than Canada since December and are only now starting to relax controls.
“We’re going to need these controls for weeks or months … and it’s very possible the government will have to go into tighter controls,” he said. “People should be planning for this to last months.”
While the virus is serious, so is the potential for harm due to control measures like such extreme isolation, noted Gardner, adding the health unit is also thinking about those harmful effects.
“Very soon the public health community will have to grapple with mitigating the harm people experience from having their lives so disrupted and in close quarters confined with each other,” he said. “Vulnerable people are being further marginalized. We don't, at this point, have good strategies to deal with that.”
However, he recommended people continue to be physically active, and go outside, but in a way that maintains physical distance between people.
The health unit website has information on how to properly practice physical distancing while still conducting essential business, running errands, and being active.
