As vaccines continue to roll out across the region, the delta variant has upped the target for herd immunity.
“Our target was 75 per cent [vaccine coverage] for theoretical herd immunity for COVID-19,” said Dr. Ian Arra, medical officer of health from Grey Bruce Health Unit (GBHU). “The hard finding is that herd immunity for the delta variant is 90 to 95 per cent, which is extremely difficult to achieve.”
“We've done what we needed to do. But obviously, the target changes with this delta variant,” he continued.
As of July 22, the GBHU was reporting 75.1 per cent of the eligible population (12 years and older) has received its first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and 65 per cent of the eligible population has received both.
This compares to the provincial average of 80.5 per cent for first doses and 65.6 per cent for both doses. However, the provincial statistics look at the population 18 years and older, as opposed to the regional 12 years and older.
According to Arra, when it comes to vaccines in general, there is a small percentage of the population that simply will not be vaccinated.
“It is not unexpected to see that people might be hesitant,” Arra said. “In statistics about vaccines in general you'll find anti-vaxxers or people who refuse a vaccine, they're less than five per cent [of the population].
“They're actually two to three per cent in many communities, but they're just more vocal on social media,” Arra continued.
He suggested that the statistics show that 60 to 70 per cent of the population is willing to take the vaccine right away and the other 20 to 25 per cent are expected to take the vaccine but at a delayed rate for various reasons.
“There are multiple reasons for it, whether it's faith-based, beliefs or traditions, or lack of information,” Arra said.
He added that in many cases individuals haven’t taken the vaccine because of lack of transportation to an administration site or due to the inability to get time away from work.
“If we look at municipalities that have not reached the 75 per cent immunized mark, that's where we're going to be sending the targeted clinics,” Arra said. “If we deploy units to the workplace and deploy units to various communities like the Amish-Mennonite community, we will see more uptake.”
As an analogy, Arra equates vaccine uptake to losing weight.
“It is easier for a person to lose the first 30 pounds, than the last few pounds. They are going to be very troublesome to go through and need more perseverance. This is similar in vaccines and this is a trend that we've seen before,” Arra said.
He added the majority of the public has been immunized through the health unit’s mass vaccination clinics, which are set to close at the end of July.
GBHU will continue to distribute the vaccine through targeted mobile and pop-up clinics, as well as the traditional methods of primary care, pharmacies and public health clinics.
The top doc encourages everyone to get vaccinated, as well as talk to others in your personal and professional circles about getting the vaccine.
“Going into the fall, we need to have that high-level of 85 plus per cent immunized, and that means provincially as well. The chief medical officer is predicting a very troubling fall if we don't have that level of vaccine. Because the delta variant is starting in the province and it is more or less a new pandemic,” Arra said.
He suggested that Ontario may be looking at a similar situation that is currently taking place in the United Kingdom right now, where the regulating bodies have lifted restrictions with 85 per cent of the population having received one dose and 66 per cent have received both doses.
“That's a level that we can probably achieve and exceed. And they lifted the restriction based on the fact that hospitalizations and deaths are not as high and the hospital and healthcare systems can handle that,” Arra said. “We just have to evaluate and change course based on the information and the situation in Ontario as we go.”
