EDITOR’S NOTE: This article originally appeared on The Trillium, a new Village Media website devoted exclusively to covering provincial politics at Queen’s Park
No one could blame Scarborough—Guildwood residents for feeling a bit of election fatigue.
In just over one year, they’ve had to go to the ballot box four times. There were the 2022 provincial and municipal elections, the 2023 Toronto mayoral byelection, and now a provincial byelection.
Again? Really? Is something campaigns have heard at the doors, Liberal and NDP sources told The Trillium. Just 3.6 per cent of voters cast a ballot in advance polls, down from 8.8 per cent ahead of last June’s provincial election date.
Facing these headwinds, each party is confident (naturally) they have a fighting chance — even if history and contemporary politics suggest it’s a two-horse race between the Liberals and PCs.
Victory could also hold significance beyond another seat in the legislature.
Liberal candidate Andrea Hazell and her party are aiming to hold one of their eight seats at Queen’s Park after longtime MPP Mitizie Hunter resigned to unsuccessfully run for mayor of Toronto.
A win could also breathe a bit of life into the electorally-challenged party while its members are deciding who to choose to be its next leader.
“I’m feeling very strong. I’ve been feeling strong since my first day canvassing,” Hazell told The Trillium. “I don’t see any candidate that is a strong competitor for Andrea Hazell,” she added.
The New Democrats and their candidate Thadsha Navaneethan want to win a riding they’ve never held. It’s also one of two first chances for Marit Stiles to turn a new riding orange and demonstrate her electoral strength as leader of the Official Opposition.
The party won March’s byelection in Hamilton Centre, which was in a fairly safe riding, held by former longtime leader Andrea Horwath.
“I’ll be honest, it’s a very strong Liberal riding and has been since the beginning but things are changing,” Navaneethan told The Trillium in an interview.
“Scarborough came out strong for progressive movement with Olivia Chow (in the Toronto mayoral race) and they said we are done with the same old politics that continues to make promises and take our communities for granted,” Navaneethan said.
The PCs are looking to further solidify their massive majority in Queen’s Park. A byelection win would also see them hold five of six Scarborough seats, a stark change from a decade of Liberal dominance between 2007 to 2018.
The governing party has a fairly well-known candidate running under the blue banner.
Gary Crawford has served Scarborough residents on Toronto City Council for 13 years before resigning his seat just days before the July 27 byelection, earning himself a $120,000 severance cheque.
He was a school board trustee for seven years before making the jump to city hall.
It’s not the first time Crawford has run for the PCs. In 2007 he ran in Scarborough Southwest but came a distant second to then-incumbent Liberal MPP Lorenzo Berardinetti.
Crawford was a close ally of former mayor John Tory, having worked as Tory’s budget chief. His role in the current state of Toronto’s finances doesn’t seem to have given the PCs pause.
“I think he’s a great candidate,” Labour Minister Monte McNaughton told The Trillium when asked about Crawford’s fiscal record at the city. “He's representing the people here in Scarborough on city council very well.”
Crawford was not made available for an interview by press time.
McNaughton, speaking at an unrelated announcement in Scarborough on Tuesday, said the prospect of adding another blue seat to the region is “exciting,” adding that the team has been “working hard” knocking on doors.
Tory also gave his former colleague a boost by recording a robocall that went out to residents 10 days ahead of the July 27 election date.
The former mayor's endorsement helped propel mayoral candidate Ana Bailāo to a second-place finish in the mayoral byelection. Bailāo campaign insiders complained to various outlets that Tory’s endorsement came too late, just five days before voters went to the polls, to swing the election in her favour.
Whether Tory’s announcement means as much to Scarborough—Guildwood residents as it did to Torontonians as a whole is an open question.
His opponents, naturally, don’t think it’s worth much.
The PCs “don’t realize that Scarborough is frustrated with the lack of resources we’ve got at every level of government, including the city level,” Navaneethan said.
“John Tory’s legacy in Toronto, let alone Scarborough, is non-existent … and I don’t think it serves (Crawford) well to have an endorsement from Tory,” she added.
“It doesn't faze me at all,” Hazell said.
Both the Liberals and NDP have former Chow volunteers helping on their campaigns, sources told The Trillium, while the Liberals also have former Bailāo volunteers lending a hand.
Tory won a huge percentage of the riding’s vote in the 2018 and 2022 mayoral elections. In the 2023 mayoral byelection, Olivia Chow won more votes in Scarborough—Guildwood than Bailāo, even with the latter winning Tory’s endorsement.
More energy and cabinet time has been spent in Ottawa for the Kanata—Carleton byelection, with nearly $1 billion in spending announced and reannounced there since the byelections were called on June 28. But Premier Doug Ford has been to Scarborough—Guildwood, or close to it, a few times during the campaign to lend a helping hand as well.
He hosted a Ford Fest steps from the riding in Thomson Memorial Park in late June, and attended the Taste of Lawrence street festival, held just blocks from Scarborough—Guildwood’s western boundary.
There haven’t been many splashy announcements in the riding since the byelection was called.
McNaughton was in Scarborough Tuesday to reveal $5.4 million for new mobile skilled trades “classrooms.” On Friday, the government welcomed an $18.4-million spend by Scarborough company Breadsource for a new facility.
About a month before the June 28 call date, however, the PCs made headlines from a podium in Scarborough.
Ford made an announcement alongside all four PC MPPs to beef up the provincial bail system. Over $110 million went to four separate programs intended to strengthen bail enforcement in the province.
Hazell and Navaneethan have also been getting a boost from their respective parties.
Hazell’s door-knocking efforts have benefited from the ongoing Liberal leadership race. Every candidate has been out canvassing and lent their support through social media.
“An amazing experience I’m having is how quickly the Liberal parties have joined force with our campaign,” she said. The leadership candidates — Bonnie Crombie, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Yasir Naqvi, Ted Hsu, and Adil Shamji — haven’t just come out once, Hazell added.
“I can’t ask for more,” she said.
Some Toronto city councillors — including former deputy mayor Jennifer McKelvie — and several Liberal MPs have also pounded the pavement for Hazell. Despite the PCs having a near-stranglehold on the area at Queen’s Park, all Scarborough MPs are Liberals.
Stiles and other NDP MPPs have knocked doors for Navaneethan, as have former MPPs like Faisal Hassan. Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh made his way to Scarborough, too. She’s also getting a helping hand from Ontario labour mainstays like CUPE’s Laura Walton.
While knocking doors, the candidates are getting an earful about transit, Hazell and Navaneethan told The Trillium.
You can’t “have a conversation about Scarborough, Scarborough politics, and the needs of Scarborough without access of transit,” Navaneethan said. “Scarborough doesn’t end at Kennedy Station,” she added, referring to the eastern terminus of Toronto’s subway system.
Some Scarborough residents ride the GO train and some use light rail trains to connect to Toronto’s main subway system — though the latter is currently shut down after one train separated and a car derailed. The entire line is closing in favour of rapid bus routes later this year. Debates have raged for decades over how to better service the area.
In 2016, Toronto city council nixed a 2013 plan to build three subway stations connected to the main line in favour of a single stop. In 2019, Ford promised residents the three-station extension plan was back on with provincial dollars, to be completed by 2030. In January, Transport Minister Caroline Mulroney announced the tunnelling had started.
