If the weather appears a bit frightful, that’s because it is.
May, so far, has recorded average temperatures 7C below what is normal. Even with promises of a warmer Victoria Day weekend on hand that may seem downright balmy comparatively, David Phillips says it will still be cooler than normal.
“The spring has been so brutally cold,” said Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada. “And even though this weekend we are going to see temperatures that are clearly going to be up to a dozen degrees warmer than we saw last weekend and certainly no snow, it will feel like a tropical heat wave compared to a week ago.
"And yet, these temperatures are still below normal.”
Typically at this time of year, the Barrie area experiences afternoon high temperatures of 19C with a morning low of 6C, so Saturday’s 16C will still fall short of that.
But the entire weekend, even with the precipitation anticipated on Sunday and Monday, will seem nice.
The warmer weather, says Phillips, will be in the days following the long weekend into next weekend.
“But every day in May… are all going to be temperatures below normal for this time of year,” he said. “And that’s the pattern we’ve seen since April.
“Right now, we’re talking in the Barrie area, morning, noon and night, temperatures that are more than 7C colder than they should be for this time of the year," Phillips added.
Phillips points to another odd occurrence. Typically, by this time in spring we would have experienced 28 days with temperatures above 20C.
This year, however, there have been none.
The cooler weather is actually helping us to better accommodate physical-distancing practices in light of the current pandemic, because staying indoors would have been almost unbearable in warmer weather, Phillips suggests.
“This is almost COVID weather… it’s consistently coolish right from the get go. We’ve had record frost days” with record cold days, he said.
Phillips points to May 9 when the thermometer only registered 4C, setting a record as the coldest for that day.
And the rainfall so far this spring has fallen short of normal, although this weekend’s rain will boost the statistics for May somewhat.
And while spring has been cool, the winter months, from November to March, were warmer than normal.
Alberta through to the Atlantic provinces have been ensconced in a polar vortex in April and May with very little warm air from the south penetrating the U.S./Canada border.
But that starts to change a little this weekend.
But by Tuesday, the forecasted 18C is close to normal, to be followed by 20C on Wednesday and 22C on Thursday and no frost, with no indication of any cold weather returning. The ground will finally warm up and plants and farmland will sprout with colour.
So it might finally be time to pack away the winter coat, toque and mitts.
“I think winter’s had its last hurrah,” said Phillips. “In a week from now, we’ll probably be complaining about the heat and humidity.”
Looking further into the summer, preliminary models are indicating it will be warmer than normal.
