Editor's note: Premier Doug Ford has since posted a Tweet to say he would be celebrating Thanksgiving with only those in his household.
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The region’s medical officer of health suggests you don’t gather with others for Thanksgiving, but acknowledges you can if you really want to.
Yesterday, Premier Doug Ford announced he was having a Thanksgiving dinner of 10 or fewer people, but the province’s public health officials recommended any dinners should be limited to households only.
Meanwhile, schools remain open, as do most workplaces, bars and restaurants, which has left some people suggesting – in exasperation – they should have Thanksgiving dinner at a restaurant.
Dr. Charles Gardner, the medical officer of health for the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit, understands the frustration.
“I agree there would appear to be incongruities with gathering elsewhere, such as bars and restaurants,” said Gardner. “If you go out to restaurants, I think it’s important you do so at the table with people that you live with.”
The doctor said dining out (or in) is considered close contact, and close contact should be limited to those in your household.
He agrees with provincial advice suggesting those who live alone could be adopted into a household so long as that’s exclusive on both sides.
Gardner maintains his advice for holidays and special occasions
“When it comes to the business of getting together for Thanksgiving and people gathering in homes, we are advising you to stay with your home group,” he said. “If you chose to have other family members, you’re going against advice, you’re not going against a regulation that’s enforceable.”
The one enforceable rule surrounding home gatherings is a limit of 10 people in a house at a time, an order issued by the provincial government.
“I do think it’s very important that people take to heart right now the importance of physical distancing from everybody excluding those in your household,” added Gardner.
It may seem COVID-19 could pose less of a fatal risk for a young, healthy person. However, noted the doctor, the prevalence of the virus in a region increases the risk to everyone, including to vulnerable populations who could face long-term damage and death from the coronavirus.
The reproductive rate for the coronavirus in Simcoe-Muskoka region is 1.2, meaning every person who has tested positive for COVID-19 is also infecting 1.2 other people.
“People need to be careful when they’re out in the community,” said Gardner. “You want to avoid being part of this kind of chain of transmission that is affecting the people in your lives.”
Another challenge related to the surge in cases is the health unit having to redeploy staff to contact tracing, something Gardner has admitted the health unit can no longer keep up with.
Since staff are focused on COVID-19 response, the health unit has not delivered school vaccine programs or other public health services such as vision or oral health checks in schools.
There are six outbreaks currently being tracked by the health unit. The most severe is the outbreak at Simcoe Manor long-term care home in Beeton, where three residents have died and another 21 have tested positive for the virus. There are also seven lab-confirmed staff cases at the facility.
There are two other long-term care outbreaks. One at The Pines Long Term Care Residence in Bracebridge where two staff members have tested positive, and another at IOOF Odd Fellow and Rebekah Home (Allandale) in Barrie where one staff member has tested positive.
The other outbreaks include a Simcoe County construction site, manufacturing facility, and agricultural processing facility.
At the construction site, two Simcoe-Muskoka residents have tested positive and one more person who lives out of the health unit jurisdiction also tested positive for the coronavirus.
At the manufacturing facility, there have been two positive staff cases.
At the agricultural processing facility, there were two cases in Simcoe County residents and another three discovered in residents living outside the Simcoe-Muskoka region, but tied to the outbreak at the facility.
The doctor said the health unit is sending out an alert about the surge in cases in the region to healthcare providers. He noted provincial COVID modelling predicted a severe outcome of more than 1,000 new cases per day in Ontario by early to mid-October.
“If we’re very fortunate, and work very hard, it’s possible for us to achieve … a less severe outcome,” he said.
But that means people following not only the rules and orders from the health unit and province, but the advice offered by public health officials.
The doctor also noted by controlling community spread, the province can continue to keep schools and workplaces open.
“We regard school to be a really important priority to keep open,” he said, noting school not only provides children with significant development opportunities, it supports families so parents and guardians can continue to work.
“It takes us back to the importance of controlling transmission in the community now,” said Gardner, advising people maintain physical distancing with anyone not in their household, wear a mask indoors in public spaces, wash their hands frequently, and self-isolate if they experience any symptoms.
“All of that is really important if we’re going to flatten the curve again and bring this under control again to safeguard those who are most vulnerable.”
The health unit has posted an infographic (pictured above) detailing the spread of COVID-19 to eight people across two communities, two households, and two workplaces, and leading to exposure in other homes and workplaces as well as cases outside the jurisdiction. You can see the graphic here.
