COVID-19 cases are on the rise in Simcoe-Muskoka with severe consequences.
Dr. Charles Gardner, medical officer of health for Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit, said while it appeared there might be a plateau in cases a couple of weeks ago, the number of cases, deaths, and COVID-related hospitalizations are rising once again.
The region’s health unit has reported the COVID-related deaths of 10 Simcoe County residents in the last two weeks.
Among them was one man between 45 and 64, three women and two men over 80, and three men and a woman between 65 and 79 years old.
There are 26 people from the region hospitalized, each between the ages of 50 and 90 years old. Three of those patients are in intensive care units.
There are 20 COVID patients at Royal Victoria Regional Health Centre – seven are from the Simcoe-Muskoka region. Georgian Bay General Hospital in Midland is caring for seven COVID patients, Orillia Soldiers’ Memorial Hospital has one COVID patient and Collingwood General and Marine Hospital has two.
There are also Simcoe-Muskoka residents hospitalized at Southlake Regional Health Centre in Newmarket, and at Toronto General Hospital and Sunnybrook Hospital.
There are more than 1,200 active, lab-confirmed cases in the region. During the first wave, there were never more than 120.
The health unit is struggling to keep up with case and contact management, and has fallen further behind as it splits its staff contingent between contact tracing and administering the vaccine against COVID-19.
According to Dr. Gardner, the health unit is reaching about 26 per cent of people who test positive for COVID-19 within 24 hours of their test results being delivered. The health unit contacts positive cases to let them know to self isolate. They used to also conduct detailed research into that individual's close contact, but have recently changed their approach because they couldn’t keep up with contact tracing.
Since Dec. 24, the health unit has reported 699 new cases of COVID-19 in the region. At the current rate of growth, the cumulative case count of 3,896 could double in 44 days.
“We continue to see the same pattern of transmission … social gatherings in particular,” said Gardner during a media update today.
Around 25 per cent of the cases reported in the region are attributed to community transmission.
“That really means we don’t know how it happened,” said Gardner.
Almost 700 of the cases reported in December were linked to close contact with other known cases.
The cases, said Gardner, are mostly linked to identifiable individuals such as a household member, work colleague, or a social contact.
“Some of that would be hard to avoid,” said Gardner, citing the example of household members transmitting to each other. “We know that a lot of it is related to people inappropriately being in close contact with social gatherings beyond their household or lapses in control measures at the workplace.”
The region has been part of the province-wide shutdown since Dec. 26, and will stay shut down for another three weeks. But Gardner predicts case counts will likely rise because of holiday gatherings.
“I expect when we get our data clarified as time goes on, we can look back at the cases that have occurred in the two weeks following Christmas or following New Year’s and there will be a substantial number that are linked to social gatherings that shouldn’t have been taking place,” said Gardner. “Whether or not the shutdown will help, time will tell.”
The province-wide shutdown does prevent people from transmitting to others in shopping environments and at public venues. It also prohibits people from having anyone outside their immediate household into their home.
“But it’s very hard to enforce that kind of thing,” said Gardner. “So, at the end of the day, it’s going to require people to be part of the solution, to heed our message and to comply if we’re really going to bring it under control.”
Even without a province-wide shutdown, areas of Simcoe County have case rates high enough for the former grey/lockdown restrictions included in the province’s COVID-19 response framework.
Bradford, Midland, New Tecumseth, and Penetanguishene all have weekly incidence rates at or above 100 cases per 100,000 people. Bradford has the highest with 156 cases per 100,000 people in a week.
Gardner said most areas that were placed in the former grey/lockdown restrictions had weekly case rates of 100 per 100,000 or higher.
Overall, the region has a weekly incidence rate of 68 cases per 100,000. This is the first time that rate has been over 60.
The per cent positivity rate is also rising in the region, and has hit all-time highs for the province. The positivity rate is the percentage of COVID tests processed that produce positive results. In Simcoe-Muskoka it’s around three per cent and for Ontario it’s been as high as 9.7 per cent over the past few days.
The province’s goal is to have that rate at or below three per cent. A high positivity rate is bad for two reasons, said Gardner.
“It’s really driven by how much transmission is happening in the community,” he said. “Just how common it is … versus are we testing enough.”
In situations where there is a lot of transmission and people are not seeking testing, then the per cent positivity rate can be high.
“And both those things are bad,” said Gardner. “Having an elevation of per cent positivity is bad for those two reasons.”
In addition to tracking “sporadic” cases in the community, the health unit is following 20 outbreaks.
As per provincial law, a health unit must declare a COVID-19 outbreak at a long-term care or retirement home if a single resident or staff member tests positive for the coronavirus. No evidence of spread at the facility is required for the outbreak status.
The current, active outbreaks in the region are as follows, with the number of cases reported by Gardner during this afternoon’s briefing:
- Georgian Bay General Hospital in Midland, outbreak declared Dec. 4
- 32 staff cases, 32 patient cases, one visitor case, six people have died after contracting COVID-19 during this outbreak
- Trillium Manor, Orillia, Dec. 14
- 14 staff cases, eight resident cases
- Revera Sara Vista, Elmvale, Dec. 25
- One staff case
- Lakeside Retirement, Innisfil, Dec. 26
- Two staff cases
- Good Samaritan Retirement Lodge, Alliston, Dec. 26
- One staff case
- Unnamed child care centre, Wasaga Beach, Dec. 27
- Four cases
- Georgian Manor, Penetanguishene, Dec. 27
- Three staff cases, two resident cases
- Tiffin Retirement Residence (first floor), Midland, Dec. 27
- One staff case
- Roger's Cove Retirement Residence, Huntsville, Dec. 29
- One staff case
- Woods Park Care Centre Retirement Home, Barrie, Jan. 1
- One staff case
- Villa Retirement Lodge, Midland, Jan 2
- One staff case, one resident case
- Simcoe Manor, Tosorontio Unit, Beeton, Jan. 3
- Two staff cases
- Grove Park Home (Aspen), Barrie, Jan. 4
- One staff case
- Unnamed child care centre in Simcoe County, declared Jan. 3
- Two cases
- Group home in Simcoe County, declared Dec. 20
- Seven staff cases, one resident case
- Group home in Simcoe County, declared Dec. 20
- Three staff cases
- Group home in Simcoe County, declared Dec. 30
- One staff case
- Group home in Simcoe County, declared Dec. 30
- One staff case
- Shelter in Simcoe County, declared Dec. 30
- One staff case
- One community setting outbreak at a food and beverage establishment in Simcoe County, declared Dec. 31
- Five individuals
