The area’s medical officer of health has added his voice to those calling for modelling data and projections for Ontario’s fourth COVID wave.
“One of the things I think we need now is projections and modelling data about where this fourth wave is going, how severe it could be, and what key interventions would be needed – are needed right now – to manage it,” said Dr. Charles Gardner, medical officer of health for the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit and chair of the Council of Ontario Medical Officers of Health, during a Tuesday media briefing.
This weekend, Dr. David Fisman, professor of epidemiology at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, announced via Twitter he was resigning from the Ontario COVID-19 Science Table. His tweets alleged the group has delayed reporting fall pandemic projections, possibly for political reasons.
His claim is that the science table has modelling work projecting a grim fall that it hasn’t released publicly. The table has been advising the Ontario government during the pandemic and releasing public reports on case data, immunizations, and modelling for various possible scenarios.
According to the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table Twitter account, their fall modelling data is incomplete and the table is working to collect many models for “reasonable, scientific consensus.” The tweets also suggest anything less than a consensus of many models could lead to over- or under-estimation of the outcomes and can’t be counted on for decision-making.
But with the fourth wave upon Ontario and a return to school and in-person learning in a couple of weeks, Gardner said he’s eager to see the modelling data released as soon as possible.
“The science table does provide public reports, and I feel that’s been invaluable in giving a window to the public about many important aspects of the pandemic,” said Gardner. “I think now is the time for that kind of report to come out. … I’m afraid I don’t know specifically if, or when, that information will come forward.”
Gardner confirmed he’s seen findings from one model done by the Hamilton health unit and presented to their board of health, and he’s seen another model not released publicly.
He’s asked both the science table and Ontario’s medical officer of health to release modelling data for the fourth wave.
“We could potentially have a very large number of cases and hospital admissions,” said Gardner when asked about his fall outlook. “It could, in particular, impact younger people, because it will be clustered overwhelmingly among the unvaccinated, or the incompletely vaccinated, which tend to be younger people.”
Children born after 2009 are still not eligible for any COVID vaccines, and likely won’t be until the new year, according to Gardner.
The doctor said there’s a possibility more restrictions and control measures will be required to keep the fourth wave in check.
As a member of the Ontario Health Measures Table, he has been helping advise Ontario’s chief medical officer of health on the potential measures to implement.
“I believe our perspective is really invaluable during the pandemic in particular and it needs to be a voice that is seriously heeded,” said Gardner. “But I know the government has to consider other perspectives as well.”
The science table has released public reports in the past that have not always aligned with the government’s decisions. For example, the table recommended schools could re-open safely on a regional basis in May 2021, but the province opted not to re-open schools for in-person learning.
Gardner was also asked if he thought Ontario’s government was paying enough attention to the advice of public health officials and its health advisory tables.
“There have been times in which I’ve been very concerned and felt our perspective was only heeded later on, such as going into the third wave, rather than at the very beginning of it,” said Gardner. “I’m fundamentally a believer in democracy, and I do believe that even in a pandemic we need elected officials to be the ultimate determinants of legislation, public expenditures and key actions.”
There is, however, the Health Protection and Promotion Act, allowing medical officers of health to issue directives, both Gardner and Ontario medical officer of health Dr. Kieran Moore done so. Dr. Moore’s most recent directive came last week when he required all healthcare settings to have a mandatory vaccination policy for staff and visitors.
“I do believe there is quite a strong legislative support for (public health),” said Gardner. “At the end of the day, I do believe you need a balance, even in a crisis, between that kind of power versus the authority of the elected officials themselves.”
